Teams that take a 2-0 lead in a best-of-five series have won it 83 times in 93 tries. Teams that lose the first two on the road have come back three times in 36 under the current format.
San Diego is one loss from that math, and the Padres have their best starter going.
How to watch
Padres at Brewers, NLDS Game 2
Sunday, Oct. 4, 4 p.m. ET / 3 p.m. CT / 1 p.m. PT
American Family Field, Milwaukee
TV: FS1
Spanish: FOX Deportes
Streaming: FOX One
Radio: WTMJ 620 and TUDN in Milwaukee, KWFN 97.3 and XEMO 860 in San Diego, ESPN Radio
National League games are on FOX and FS1 this round. American League games are on TBS and truTV.
FS1 requires a package that includes it, and is carried on YouTube TV, Hulu Live, Fubo, Sling and DirecTV Stream.
Lineups
San Diego: Fernando Tatis Jr. RF, Dustin Harris LF, Manny Machado 3B, Ty France 1B, Jackson Merrill CF, Ethan Salas DH, Xander Bogaerts SS, Luis Campusano C, Jake Cronenworth 2B.
Milwaukee: Jackson Chourio LF, Brice Turang 2B, Jake Bauers 1B, William Contreras C, Garrett Mitchell CF, Christian Yelich DH, Sal Frelick RF, Cooper Pratt SS, David Hamilton 3B.
Campusano catches King and Salas moves to designated hitter. Gavin Sheets has not started this postseason.
Michael King
King has a 2.05 career postseason ERA. He threw seven scoreless innings against the Cubs in the Wild Card Series with a no-hit bid into the seventh, the second time he has gone seven scoreless in a playoff start.
He finished 12-10 with a 3.21 ERA and went 6-3 with a 2.93 in the second half after a 2025 season largely lost to injury.
Logan Henderson
Henderson is 24 and making his first postseason appearance. He last pitched Sept. 23 in Philadelphia, eleven days ago.
He is 11-3 with a 2.47 ERA and has never allowed more than three runs in 23 career starts. His fastball sits about 10 mph below Jacob Misiorowski's and plays up on its shape.
He missed time with a forearm injury last year and was getting healthy when Milwaukee set its postseason rosters.
Mason Miller hasn't pitched
San Diego used four relievers in Game 1 and none was Miller. He has thrown one inning since Sept. 26 and worked two innings only twice all season. If the Padres have a lead, he could appear earlier than usual.
Miller was also at the center of the World Baseball Classic final in March. San Diego permitted Team USA to use him only in a save situation. When the United States tied Venezuela 2-2 in the eighth, the ninth was no longer a save, and Mark DeRosa went to Garrett Whitlock instead. Venezuela won 3-2 for its first title.
Venezuela manager Omar López took the opposite approach, persuading three MLB front offices to lift restrictions on their relievers before the final. That allowed him to use Cubs closer Daniel Palencia for a second straight night. Palencia struck out Roman Anthony at 99.7 mph to end it, in tears on the mound.
Miller made four appearances in the tournament with 10 strikeouts in four innings and two saves.
The rest of the bullpens
Adrián Morejón worked two innings Saturday and gave up the Contreras home run. Jason Adam, Yuki Matsui and Bradgley Rodriguez all pitched and are likely limited to an inning each. Randy Vasquez is available for long relief.
Trevor Megill recorded his first multi-inning save of the season for Milwaukee. He had 30 saves for a second straight year with a career-best 0.89 WHIP.
Abner Uribe, Aaron Ashby and DL Hall all worked in Game 1. Uribe is 6-3 with a 1.97 ERA in 61 appearances. Robert Gasser, Shane Drohan and Kyle Harrison are fresh.
What happened in Game 1
Milwaukee won 3-2. William Contreras homered in the seventh, and Ty France's potential go-ahead drive in the ninth hit a cable on the American Family Field roof and was caught by Jackson Chourio for an out.
Under the ballpark's ground rules, a batted ball that strikes the roof or its cables in fair territory stays live and can be caught. San Diego challenged that it was foul and lost.
France's drive had a 49-degree launch angle. Only 10 over-the-fence home runs in the Statcast era have had a launch angle that high, and none at American Family Field has exceeded 46 degrees.
It is the second time this season a Padre lost a home run to a ballpark roof. Xander Bogaerts had one taken away at Tropicana Field in August.
Who is hot
Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts are each 5-for-11 this postseason. Ty France is 5-for-12. Jackson Merrill went 0-for-5 in Game 1 and Austin Hays is 0-for-6.
Jackson Chourio has homered in all four postseason series he has played, passing Prince Fielder and Orlando Arcia for the Brewers record. He is 22, and the only other players with five playoff home runs before turning 23 are Kyle Schwarber and Juan Soto.
All three of William Contreras's career postseason home runs have been go-ahead shots with two outs.
Brice Turang led the majors in September with a .361 average and a .475 on-base percentage.
The World Baseball Classic rosters
Milwaukee sent Jackson Chourio, William Contreras and Ángel Zerpa to Venezuela, all three of whom won the title in March. Brice Turang played for the United States. Abner Uribe played for the Dominican Republic. Joey Ortiz played for Mexico.
San Diego sent Fernando Tatís Jr. and Manny Machado to the Dominican Republic, Xander Bogaerts to the Netherlands, Mason Miller to the United States and Yuki Matsui to Japan.
Tatís hit the first grand slam in Dominican Republic history at the tournament.
Injuries
Jeremiah Estrada is out for San Diego with a right shoulder impingement. Gavin Sheets is limited to designated hitter and pinch-hitting with a foot issue. Joe Musgrove is on the roster after nearly two years out following Tommy John surgery.
Walker Buehler is expected back from the paternity list for Game 3.
Joey Ortiz dealt with abdominal, groin and knee issues coming into the series but ran well in Game 1.
The series schedule
Game 1 — Milwaukee 3, San Diego 2
Game 2 — Sunday, Oct. 4, 4 p.m. ET, Milwaukee
Game 3 — Tuesday, Oct. 6, 9:30 p.m. ET, San Diego. Nick Pivetta starts for San Diego, Dustin May for Milwaukee.
Game 4 — Wednesday, Oct. 7, 10 p.m. ET, San Diego, if necessary
Game 5 — Friday, Oct. 9, 4:30 p.m. ET, Milwaukee, if necessary
All on FS1. The winner plays in the National League Championship Series beginning Oct. 11.
Neither franchise has won a World Series.
The rest of Sunday
Braves at Dodgers, 8 p.m. ET on FS1. Ray Kerr opens for Atlanta against Blake Snell. Los Angeles leads 1-0.
The American League series resume Monday. Chicago leads Cleveland 1-0 and will open Game 2 with Anthony Kay, with Sean Burke expected to follow. Tampa Bay leads New York 1-0.