The Cubs are going to the playoffs. Baseball Reference puts their chances at 99.7 percent.
They haven't clinched it yet because Miami beat them 8-2 in twelve innings Wednesday, spoiling the celebration for a second straight night.
How to watch
Marlins at Cubs
Thursday, Sept. 24 — 2:20 p.m. ET / 1:20 p.m. CT
Wrigley Field, Chicago
TV: Marquee Sports Network in Chicago, Marlins.TV in South Florida
Streaming: MLB.TV, Fubo, DirecTV — subject to local blackout
Radio: 104.3 The Score, with Spanish on WPPN 106.7 and TUDN. 560 WQAM in Miami, Spanish on WAQI 710
Probables: LHP Matthew Boyd (9-5, 4.06) for Chicago, RHP Tyler Phillips (5-6, 3.45) for Miami.
Lineups
Chicago: Pete Crow-Armstrong CF, Seiya Suzuki RF, Michael Busch 1B, Michael Conforto DH, Ian Happ LF, Nico Hoerner 2B, Pedro Ramírez 3B, Carson Kelly C, Dansby Swanson SS.
Miami: Otto Lopez SS, Heriberto Hernández LF, Jakob Marsee CF, Javier Sanoja 3B, Agustín Ramírez DH, Esteury Ruiz RF, Deyvison De Los Santos 1B, Jared Serna 2B, Brian Navarreto C.
NL wild card standings
Baseball Reference postseason chances, through Sept. 23:
San Diego — 88-70, 97.5 percent
Chicago — 87-71, 99.7 percent
Philadelphia — 87-71, 97.5 percent
Arizona — 84-74, 5.3 percent
Milwaukee holds the top seed at 99-59. Los Angeles and Atlanta hold the other two division titles, so the three wild card clubs are seeded fourth, fifth and sixth regardless of record.
Arizona has won four straight and is four games back with four to play.
What the seeding decides
The fourth seed hosts the fifth in a best-of-three. The third seed hosts the sixth. The higher seed hosts every game.
Baseball Reference projects San Diego fourth, Chicago fifth, Philadelphia sixth — which would send the Cubs to San Diego.
Chicago and Philadelphia are tied at 87-71 with four to play. San Diego is a game ahead of both.
The Cubs have a 56.5 percent chance to reach the Division Series, the best among the three NL wild cards.
The Cubs have cooled since the deadline
Chicago was 62-47 on July 31, ahead of every team it's now fighting with. Arizona was 58-52, Philadelphia 57-53, San Diego 56-54.
The Cubs have gone 25-24 since — 16-12 in August, including a franchise-record 30 consecutive runs scored without allowing one during a West Coast road trip, then 9-12 in September.
FanGraphs gave Chicago an 89.3 percent chance to reach the postseason on July 31 and a 10.1 percent chance to win the Central. They'll finish second in the division for a fourth straight year.
The American League is still open
Cleveland is 82-76 and the White Sox are 81-77 in the Central. The loser takes the third wild card rather than going home. Cleveland's division chances are 55.7 percent, Chicago's 44.3.
Houston and Texas are both 78-80 in the West, and only one gets in — neither is close to a wild card. Houston owns the head-to-head tiebreaker, which is why Baseball Reference has the Astros at 74.8 percent and the Rangers at 25.3.
A team is going to reach the postseason at 80-82.
Wednesday at Wrigley
Miami scored six in the twelfth.
Kyle Stowers homered for a second straight game — his 20th, 372 feet to left-center at 106.1 mph — and finished with a double, a walk, two RBIs and three runs. Janson Junk threw five scoreless innings with six strikeouts. Eury Pérez, a starter his entire career, came out of the bullpen and struck out three.
Chicago tied it in the sixth on an Ian Happ single. It stayed 2-2 until Griffin Conine's go-ahead single in the twelfth and a Jakob Marsee RBI single behind it.
The Cubs struck out seventeen times.
CM Punk, the Chicago-born WWE wrestler, threw out the ceremonial first pitch wearing a Pete Crow-Armstrong jersey and led the seventh-inning stretch.
Eight countries on one field
Otto Lopez leads off for Miami. The Dominican infielder is hitting .304 with 34 stolen bases and is the Marlins' Roberto Clemente Award nominee. Javier Sanoja, the Venezuelan utility man, is hitting .294 with 68 RBIs. Heriberto Hernández, Agustín Ramírez, Deyvison De Los Santos and Esteury Ruiz are Dominican, as are Edward Cabrera and Eury Pérez. Jared Serna is from Guaymas, Mexico.
Chicago starts Seiya Suzuki, from Tokyo, and Pedro Ramírez, who is Venezuelan. Shota Imanaga is Japanese. Daniel Palencia and Gabriel Arias are Venezuelan. Kevin Alcántara is Dominican. Miguel Amaya is Panamanian, from Chitré. Javier Assad is Mexican.
Pete Crow-Armstrong leads the majors with 45 home runs and has 107 RBIs and 39 stolen bases.
Chicago's injured list
Justin Steele, Cade Horton, Ben Brown, Porter Hodge, Shelby Miller, Hunter Harvey and Phil Maton are all on the 60-day injured list, most with elbow or arm problems.
Alex Bregman is day-to-day after being hit in the face by a foul ball while on deck. Pedro Ramírez starts at third in his place.
A year ago this week
Miami took a series from the Mets at loanDepot park last September on Venezuelan Heritage Night and kept New York out of October. Sandy Alcántara pitched. Cincinnati took the spot the Mets lost and was swept by the Dodgers, who won the World Series.
The Marlins are eliminated again and deciding someone else's season again.
Lineups, probables and box score via MLB. Standings and playoff probabilities via Baseball Reference. July 31 probabilities via FanGraphs.