Yokohama High School right-hander Shoki Oda entered the summer as one of the top high school prospects in Japan and further raised his stock with a strong showing at the renowned Summer Koshien this month.
The 6-foot-1, 180-pounder helped Yokohama reach the semifinals of the tournament, striking out 12 over 8 ⅔ innings in his first start before combining for seven scoreless innings and 11 strikeouts across two relief appearances. He then threw a complete-game shutout against Hanamaki Higashi in the quarterfinals, striking out 10.
His tournament ended with a short outing against eventual champion Chiben Wakayama in the semifinals, when he allowed four runs in 2 ⅓ frames. Fatigue may have played a role, as Oda was pitching on one day of rest after throwing 123 pitches in the quarterfinals.
Despite the difficult finish, Oda showed why he has attracted significant interest from both Nippon Professional Baseball and Major League Baseball teams.
The 18-year-old right-hander reached 156 kmh (97 mph) at Koshien, setting a tournament record. During his quarterfinal start, he sat 94-96 mph while maintaining his premium velocity deep into the game.
Oda also has a solid foundation of secondary pitches, including a slider, cutter, and splitter. His splitter is particularly notable, reaching around 89-90 mph at its best. The combination gives him one of the most advanced arsenals among amateur pitchers in Japan.
Now, the biggest question surrounding Oda is where he will begin his professional career.
NPB or MLB?
Oda will play in the Asian Championship for the U-18 national team in September and is eligible for the NPB Draft, which will be held on October 22. Based on his current form and scouting evaluations, he would be expected to receive multiple first-round nominations should he declare.
That said, Oda is also seriously considering signing directly with an MLB organization. MLB teams have followed him throughout the year as seven organizations sent scouts to Japan’s U-18 team training camp in April, with the Dodgers, Yankees, and Padres among the sides represented.
The interest continued throughout the high school season and increased during Koshien. Yokohama manager Hiroaki Murata confirmed after the tournament that Oda is weighing both options.
“We’ll discuss his future while considering both Japan and the Majors,” Murata said after Yokohama’s semifinal loss.
Oda has not publicly indicated which direction he prefers. When asked what would ultimately determine his decision, he jokingly answered “intuition” and said he had not made up his mind yet.
There are indications, however, that MLB teams believe they have a strong chance of signing him. One unnamed MLB scout estimated that there is a 90 percent chance Oda signs with an MLB organization, suggesting that NPB teams may face an uphill battle to keep one of the country’s top young pitchers in Japan.
The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees are regarded as the frontrunners to sign the 18-year-old according to various reports from Japanese media, though nothing is finalized. The international amateur free agent window closes on December 15.
The NCAA is another possible route. Oda could attend an American university and eventually become eligible for the MLB Draft, though there has been less discussion surrounding that possibility compared with signing directly with an MLB organization or entering the NPB Draft.
More Japanese Amateurs Looking Stateside
Oda’s decision — which should be announced before the NPB Draft registration deadline on October 8 — comes as more Japanese amateurs than ever are considering ways to reach MLB without first playing in NPB and going through the posting system.
Shotaro Morii is one recent example. Morii, a two-way talent from Toho High School, bypassed the NPB Draft and signed directly with the Athletics in January 2025 for a reported $1.51 million bonus.
Rintaro Sasaki famously took a different route. The former Hanamaki Higashi star slugger chose Stanford instead of entering the NPB Draft out of high school in 2023. He was then selected by the Miami Marlins in the eighth round of the 2026 MLB Draft while also weighing an offer from the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks.
Genei Sato recently followed a similar college path. The hard-throwing right-hander transferred from Sendai University to Penn State, allowing him to become eligible for the MLB Draft next year.
Itsuki Takemoto, Kenny Ishikawa, and Shogo Miyauchi are among other prep players who did not have the same prospect pedigree as Morii, Sasaki, or Sato, but also pursued collegiate opportunities in the United States rather than following the traditional NPB route.
For now, NPB remains the standard path for elite Japanese prospects. Yusei Kikuchi considered signing with an MLB organization directly out of Hanamaki Higashi in 2009 before ultimately entering the NPB Draft.
Shohei Ohtani went even further in 2012, publicly announcing his intention to begin his professional career in the U.S. The Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters drafted him anyway and eventually convinced him to sign.
Kotaro Kiyomiya was a Little League World Series standout who later set the unofficial Japanese high school home run record (which was subsequently surpassed by Rintaro Sasaki). He also considered embarking on an MLB path before declaring for the NPB Draft in 2017.
More recently, right-hander Genki Ishigaki attracted considerable interest from MLB scouts in 2025, particularly during the U-18 Baseball World Cup. But the Kendai Takasaki star pitcher ultimately submitted his professional declaration and was selected by the Chiba Lotte Marines in the first round of the 2025 NPB Draft.
Oda, who is fairly comparable to Ishigaki in terms of talent level, faces a similar decision and will have plenty of negotiation leverage as he weighs his options on both sides of the Pacific.
If Oda enters the NPB Draft, he should be one of the most highly sought-after players available as one of the consensus top three prospects in the class. If he chooses MLB instead, he would arguably become the most prominent Japanese high school prospect ever to sign directly with a Major League organization.